Week Ahead 12-17-2007

Good Morning

Sorry about friday, Didn't get to the rapup post.

Well, its the last week before the holidays. I think this week will be a nice one. Today (monday) is the only real good news day in the US. We've got the empire state business conditions index, current accounts, long term transactions and fed governor. All of which are in the AM. Tuesday we've got housing starts and building permits. Housing starts should be a nice little mover. Wednesday we've got alot of euro pound news. Thursday we've got GDP and philly manufacturing index. Finally on friday we've got core pce price index, Personal spending, (which is a big number) and consumer sentiment which is another big number.

So like i said we are going to have a nice week. All around we've got some good numbers coming out. Hope everybody has a profitable week :)

JP

Mid-Week Update 12-12-2007

Good Morning

Well the fed came out yesterday and cut interest rate a quarter of a point to 4.25%. Pretty much obliterated the stock market and all the dollar pairs. PERFECT trade! Trade balance just came out about 14 minutes ago, The dollar didn't really have a reaction to it because it sold off before the announcement. There was a minor push up in eur/usd though.

The rest of the week looks pretty good fundamentally with ppi and cor ppi. Also have the Tanken report in japan which will be nice in yen pairs. its the same as the US Beige book.

I have decided to start commentating futures and stocks more on my blog. I'm new to futures so if I sound like any more of an idiot then i am now please don't laugh to hard. HAHA........

Thanks

JP

Week Ahead 12-10-2007

Good Morning,

First of all this morning i've got to appologize for fridays post, or the lack of post on friday haha. Im new to this blogging thing so you gotta give me a chance to grow.

But anyway, This week is a huge week with the FOMC coming out on tuesday. Starting off today we don't have much news in the US market. Pending home sales comes out at 10am EST. Other than that its a technical day on the US market. North of the border the Bank of Canada Governor speaks at 12pm EST. Canada also has housing starts that have already came out at 8:15am EST.

Tuesday of course we've got the interest rate statement (FOMC) coming out at 2:15pm. There are other opportunities on the Aussie dollar, the pound and the euro.

Wednesday we've got the import price index at 8:30am also the trade balance at 8:30am. Other good trades in the Aussie dollar, the pound, the New Zealand Dollar and the Canadian Dollar.

Thursday is a Big day. We've got retail sales, core retail sales and ppi coming out at 8:30am. In other markets we've got good trades in the Canadian dollar, the Japanese Yen, The pound and the Swiss Franc.

Finally on friday we've got CPI and Core CPI coming out at 8:30am. At 9:15am we've got industrial production and capacity utilization. No other news announcments other then the canadian dollar.

Well i hope everybody has a good week.

JP

Trading compared to gambling

Morning

Hope everybody is ready for the week ahead.

Even though its Sunday I have had an itching all weekend to talk about trading compared to gambling. Ever sense I've started to trade people have been telling me to not to it cause its gambling and you can lose all your money. I do give them 50% credit in that statement, because you can lose all your money. But, its not gambling. I have came to the conclusion that the people who claim trading is gambling are the people who's uncles brothers friend lost 800 dollars on a stock, so that makes them an expert in why you shouldn't trade. Well i don't want to insult anybody but that is just ignorance talking. TRADING IS NOT GAMBLING!!

When you gamble you cannot predict the outcome. Trading you can predict the outcome 95% of the time through studying macro economics of the trade, recent events, and possible future events. You cannot do that in gambling. The reason people compare trading to gambling is because they just bought a stock there brothers uncles friend told them was good. Then the company was investigated by the IRS and their stock dropped 50 bucks. They bought that stock with no studying into the company. These people wouldn't know what a stochastic or moving average is if it came up and bit them in the ass. These are the people you don't want to talk to if you want to get into trading. Because they'll just bring you down and tell you not to do it.

To be success full as a trader you need the following
1, to study technicals and fundamentals as much as you can
2, read every book on macro/micro economics, I also would suggest Socio economics
3, Treat your trading as a business, Get it registered as an llc.
4, Trade Trade Trade, lose, lose? Yes so you learn more then WIN WIN WIN
5, Don't listen to ignorant people who failed then bring that negative B.S onto you.

Weekly rapup 12/7/2007

Good Morning

Well as expected this week was a pretty active week on the fundamental side of trading. Unemployment came out today at 4.8% up from 4.7% last month. Consumer sentiment was down as expected. It had a minor quick scalp on dollar pairs. Its going to be a sidways friday today i think. euro yen is in a intraday trend. Hoping it'll break out so i can get something.

Hope everybody has a good weekend.

JP

Mid-Week Update

Good Morning folks

The non farm employment just came out today and its double what was predicted 189K, prediction was 119K. MARKET MANIPULATION PEOPLE. I'm all for trading fundamentals but i really wouldn't trade on these numbers. Something wrong here. The ISM manufacturing index was higher at 50.8 VS the 50.4 predicted. I'd watch this number after the Christmas season due to less manufacturing after Christmas. This has been a huge week all across the board on the fundamental side. All currencies have had good news movers coming out this week. News traders are going WILD.

As far as the rest of the week goes, We've got the ECB announcement coming out tomorrow as wells jobless claims. Friday we've got consumer sentiment as well as consumer credit (which will be a crap number) and we got the employment situation number on Friday as well. After seeing non farms at 189K i wouldn't trade the employment number cause of the manipulation.

Well, i gotta get trading folks. Have a good day!

Week ahead 12/4/2007

Good Morning

Big BIG BIG week this week, especially for the dollar pairs. citi bank announced a downsize last nite which moved the dollar ALOT, I see the stock market falling today after this news. European banks, mostly England banks announced they will be forced to cut rates because of there own credit crisis. What is going on people!!! Monetary policy is out of control!!!!

I am not going to be posting the week ahead news announcements this morning, because there is ALOT of news this week. Actually, this week I'll post the news on a day basis this week.

Have a good morning folks!!

Weekly Rapup 11/30/2007

Good Morning folks,

Well this week was pretty much what most predicted on the news fronts. GDP was higher then expected and existing home sales was higher, Which really surprised me. Most of the employment indicators were not good. The financial and automotive sectors being hit the hardest, watch out in the upper Midwest and northeast. The employment numbers are going to get worse in my opinion, because the next few numbers will show the fluctuation in temp jobs being sent home after the holidays. With consumer confidence lower I don't see us having a good holiday spending season even though black Friday had good numbers.

I wouldn't suggest anybody invest into any US mutual funds or ETF's until after January. Because the numbers will only get worse. I have alot of people asking me if gold is a good investment right now. My answer is no. Because inflation has already risen alot and i don't see gold going on a big bullish run. 2004 was the last real good time to invest int gold. I would suggest investing in foreign funds to help diversify and leverage your portfolio.

Note, DO NOT sell any of your American funds. We are in a market correction this is a normal economic fluctuation. Just wait, it will correct itself.

Have a good weekend

JP

Mutual Funds

Good Morning,

Today I'd like to talk a little bit about mutual funds. They are in my opinion the best long term wealth building tool out there today. There are 8 basic types of mutual funds.

1, Money Market Funds

2, Bond Funds

3, Growth & Income Funds

4, Growth Funds

5, Aggressive Growth Funds

6, International & Global Stock funds

7, International Bond Funds

8, Specialty funds

In order to invest into a mutual fund you need to ask yourself why? Why are you investing? bond funds are good for long term investing you plan on keeping in the bank for awhile. Then there are your growth funds and aggressive growth funds, Both are good for college savings. They are good to keep for five or more years. International global stock funds are good vehicles to use when you want to diversify your portfolio, you can also gain on growing economies. International bond funds are good for when foreign interest rates are higher then in the USA. Please don't that international funds carry a bit more risk then traditional funds. Specialty funds are a good way to diversify between stocks. bonds and money market funds.

The key steps in gauging mutual funds are as follows.

A good record of adding value over a minimum of 5 years, i prefer 10 years.

Stable Portfolio management. <

An understandable investment strategy for managing risk.

a no load cost structure and competitive expense ratio.

Key signs of when to leave a mutual fund

Portfolio Manager leaves

The investment strategy changes significally

The fund company is sold

The lead portfolio manager starts managing the business rather than the portfolio

The funds performance deteriorates for two ore more years

Key Mutual Fund terms

NAV ( Net Asset Value) : A mutual fund's price per share or exchange-traded fund's per-share value. To get the NAV you divide the assets/shares.

No Load VS load

No load Mutual funds have no commissions, loaded funds charge commission.

Personal Finance

Good Morning,

Today i want to talk about personal finance. This is a tight subject to alot of people, but a very important one. It would make your brake you in any market, expecially the forex or stock market.

The number one rule i have is to never use credit cards. Alot of people tell me, but what about my credit score? Well What about it? I am building my own home and i have a paid for vehicle and im building my home with cash. Everybody can do what i do financially. It just takes a bit more work and dedication.

The reason i say not to use credit cards is because. Without monthly payments that are not required to keep food on your table and the lights on, you'll have alot more room to breath.

Make sure you always have 3-6 months of expenses in your savings account. and put 15% of your annual income into long term investments roths, mutual funds, ETF's ect ect. You don't want to leverage all of your trading portfolio with short term investments. Its the same thing as having a job with no retirement account.

Don't EVER EVER EVER EVER leverage more then 10% of your trading account. as far as taking out profit for income. Some people take out half of what they earn. Personally i don't like that, because that don't leave you alot of wiggle room. For beginners i say don't take ANY profit until you made 5 grand in your account. Then for every 500 dollars you earn you withdraw 500 dollars. So basically you take out 10%. That is an extra 24 grand a year. Remember that number will always go up as long as you keep profiting from trades.

the last and more important. Make a plan and trade your plan.....With good money management and following a plan you will succeed.

Holiday Weekend/Week Ahead

MONDAY MONDAY MONDAY!!

Holiday Spending on Friday (Black Friday) was up 8% from 2006!! Some Economics said it was going to be down 10% from 2006.

However, I do believe that this number is misleading from the overall spending numbers. In general i think sales will be down this year due to credit and the mortgage crunch.

The Week Ahead

Consumer Confidence comes out on Tuesday at 10am EST : I believe this number will be lower for November due to credit uses and gas prices.

Durable Goods comes out on Wednesday at 8:30am EST : This number more then likely will either go up or stay the same due to the coming holiday season.

Existing Home Sales comes out on Wednesday at 10:00am EST : This number will be lower due to the winter season coming. Home sales slow down in general in the winter.

GDP (Gross Domestic Product) comes out Thursday at 8:30am : GDP will stay the same or be a bit lower due to energy prices and inflation concerns.

New Homes Sales comes out on Thursday at 10:00am EST: This number will be down or no change.

Personal Income and Outlays comes out on Friday at 8:30am EST : outlays will be up. income will be the same i believe.

Construction Spending comes out on Friday at 10:00am EST : this number will be down.

There yea go folks. Hope the information helps you.

4x made easy/forex products

Good Morning,

Today i am going to talk about 4x made easy and similar forex products. So many people fall victim to this product (4x made easy) its sickening. It leaves a bad taste in the mouths off all the victims and they blame the forex market.

Its plain and simple, you cannot buy some type of autopilot software and expect to make millions in the forex market. 4x made easy costs $2200 a year plus $4000 for the software. There is no shortcut in the market. 4 grand is enough money to open a 100 grand account on most broker sites. The broker sites don't charge you a monthly fee either. They make money on the spread. the software 4x made easy gives you is a crap software. In order to be successful in the forex market you NEED to know at least the basics of Macro economics, technical and fundamental analysis. You have to know why the market is moving. If you want somebody to tell you when to buy or sell, you might as well just hire a money manager.

There are hundreds and thousands of autopilot software out there that costs money and some that are free. My advice to you is go out and buy books that are not co written or sponsored by somebody who is selling a product. Because that is there only goal.

I personally use meta trader as my charting software and gain capital as my broker site. I haven't had any issues thus far. Meta trader is free and has all the signal and indicators you'll ever need.

The key point I want to make is don't buy forex products buy information about the forex market that is not written or sponsored by somebody who created a product for the forex. I've met a lot of traders who have products and those who don't. The real professional traders don't sell there strategy. They teach it or keep there mouth shut. Because if you had such an awesome trading system why would you be out selling it, when you could be trading it? One of the best teachers i've came across is a man by the name of Andrew Spanton, He is the owner of Global FX LLC. He runs a trading firm that teaches people to trade VIA his radio show www.globalfxradio.com He cares about people making money. That's his goal, and if he likes your trading style he'll even give you his money to trade and give you half the profit.

So if your interested in going into the forex market. Go buy books about the forex, open a demo account and trade. its ok if you blow up the account. That's how you learn. But please people!! Don't go out and spend 4 grand for crap software!!!!!

JP

Trading Plan/Reasons to Trade

Happy Thanksgiving, :)

I want to talk a little bit about a trading plan this morning. Going to try and keep it short since its a holiday.

I cannot emphasize enough how important a trading plan is. as the saying goes "if you fail to plan you plan to fail" I can almost guarantee you will fail if you don't have a trading plan. Whether you trade part time, full time or your a swing trader, position trader, or scalp trader. YOU NEED A PLAN.

The things you need in a trading plan is as follows:

What currency pairs you will trade.

At what times will you trade those pairs.

What sessions of the trading day will you trade.

Daily trading audit that goes over the trades you did the day before.

A daily checklist of things you will do prior to entering a trade

(You can also create a mini plan that is a plan for each trade i will talk about this later on)

You need to understand what fundamentals will move the market each day (a morning briefing)

Create a daily, weekly, monthly and yearly profit loss limit. (notice i said profit, Yes set profit limits that will create consistency. You won't have the desire to trade more then lose)

Set a risk level, how much money will you leverage on each trade. No more then 10% is typical risk level.

Create Entry rules. How will you enter a trade? always look at Technicals and Fundamentals together.

Keep records of your trades, Most platforms these days have a profit loss statement. I personally do it buy hand using an accounting book i got at staples. You will understand your daily winnings and losses more. You can go a step further and print out all your winning and loss charts using screen hunter or a similar program. it will give you a visual aid.

Last, just like the morning briefing do a nightly briefing that goes over wins and losses.

Now i want to talk about the reasons to trade. I personally don't trade just to make money. I have to admit though. When i first started trading I was just interesting in making money, and guess what? I lost my ass. This may sound weird but trading isn't all about making money. Trading is about learning the market, trends and behavors of other traders. If you don't have the desire to learn about Macroeconomics, fundamental analysis and technical analysis. You won't win in trading. You will always lose.

I hope everybody has a safe and happy thanksgiving,

Thank You

JP

Introduction

The purpose of this blog is to discuss financial and economic news. I will be sharing my thoughts on movements on the market, and reactions from news regarding economic and or political events.

Reading my blog is not NOT (N-O-T) to be used as a reference to trade off of. My primary goal of this blog is just to share my thoughts on the market. I am primarily a scalp trader on the forex. I do not trade individual stocks. My long term investment tools are in mutual funds.